Election 2008

I know it is way too early to start making predictions about election 2008, but since every media outlet is doing it anyway, I thought I would join the fun.

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
From where I sit, circumstances don’t look good for my party right now (yes, I am now officially registered as a Republican). The front runner is Rudolph Giuliani. Yes, he showed great leadership in New York City. Yes, he would probably fight the war on terror better than any Democrat imaginable. Yes, he does have a broad range of support from people with all kinds of views in this country.

But he is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. His own family history is a mess. I don’t say this to condemn him or to claim that no one should ever get a second chance in life. I know many wonderful people who have messed up on their marriages. But if the Republican Party is going to be the party that stands for the sanctity of life and the sanctity of marriage, this is not the man to lead us at this crucial time in our nation’s history. I will probably vote for him if he gets the nomination, but that would be more of a vote against a Democrat than for him. I fear that, if he does get the nomination, he will not be able to energize the conservative base enough to win the election. The conservative base would have to be energized against Hillary or against someone else in that case. That was the Democratic strategy in 2004 (a vote for Kerry is a vote against Bush), and it didn’t work.

And then there is John McCain. He is broadly conservative, but a maverick on a number of things. I think his views on the issues are pretty solid overall, but he is not the kind of candidate who will energize support. He is probably too old to win. I know Reagan was old, but McCain is no Reagan. A McCain candidacy would probably resemble Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign. Republicans would probably think, “Yeah, he’s okay, but is this really the best we can do?”

And then there is Mitt Romney. He appears to be a conservative, but then he has changed his positions so many times that it is hard to keep up. I can understand changing your mind about an issue here and there, but Romney’s record, especially on the issue of life, seems to indicate that his positions change according to whatever is politcally expedient at the time. Again, I will probably vote for him if he gets the nomination, but he doesn’t energize me much either.

These are the leaders of the pack. My hope is that Romney will continue to do poorly in the polls so that another conservative alternative to Giuliani can rise to prominence. I want that alternative to be Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is the former governor of Arkansas. He is conservative, articulate, and unique in some ways. His weight loss story is great. He plays in a rock band and has promoted arts education in Arkansas, something Republicans are not normally known for. He is a Southern Baptist who recognizes that one’s religious views cannot be strictly separated from one’s political philosophy, as though religion were merely a private matter with no public consequences. And so, for all those who have been waiting for my opinion on this matter (pretty much the whole world, I’m sure), I officially endorse Mike Huckabee for President in 2008.

His biggest challenge will probably be that his name is “Huckabee.” Can you imagine hearing on the news, “The Huckabee Administration…”? Oh, well. I know he is relatively unknown right now, but I seem to remember another Arkansas governor who was also relatively unknown at this point in 1991. I think it can be done.

In my next post I’ll look at the Democrat candidates.

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3 Responses to “Election 2008”

  1. Cogito Says:

    Howdy from the Netherlands!

    Aaron, you forget good ol’ Newt! If a “solid” conservative doesn’t arise, he’ll likely throw his name in the hat later this year.

    But as of now, I like McCain.

    First, he seems to be a decent, honest guy. Can’t say that of too many people in Washington.

    Second, if he gets the Republican nod, it vastly increases the chances of winning the presedency again for the party.

    My biggest fear is that Hillary will do well. Not because she is a woman, but because of the type of person she is, and the kinds of stances I’m sure she will make (this point, I think, is obvious).

    My prediction 6-months ago was McCain v Edwards for in ’08. That’s still my bet.

  2. Cogito Says:

    I’ll go a step further…if Hillary or Obama goes up against McCain, McCain will win. If Edwards runs against McCain…this will be too close to call.

    It really depends on how much the Dem’s do or don’t do for the next year in Congress.

  3. Aaron Says:

    I guess I don’t see McCain as quite as strong a candidate as you do, though I agree with you that he is a decent, honest guy.

    I actually intended to mention Newt, but I just forgot. Newt is a solid conservative, but he faces a similar problem that Giuliani faces: his personal life. I think he is on his third wife now, having betrayed both of his former wives (and both while they were very sick!). Should a candidate’s personal life be a factor? I think so. A man’s faithfulness to his wife is a reflection of his character, and character is a nonnegotiable for a good leader. Plus, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to make this is a political issue.

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